{"id":53399,"date":"2026-06-25T09:44:58","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T09:44:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icm.com\/energy-markets-reset-gulf-flows-oil-prices\/"},"modified":"2026-09-08T10:38:13","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T10:38:13","slug":"energy-markets-reset-gulf-flows-oil-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/43.204.68.210\/icmcapitalmy\/en\/energy-markets-reset-gulf-flows-oil-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Energy Markets Reset as Gulf Flows Resume and Oil Drops Back"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"53399\" class=\"elementor elementor-53399\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-c431f11 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"c431f11\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-6ba79e8\" data-id=\"6ba79e8\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-bf55d9f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"bf55d9f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Oil markets moved sharply lower as Gulf shipping conditions improved, pulling Brent and WTI closer to levels seen before the latest Middle East disruption. The move is important because energy prices can affect inflation expectations, central bank policy assumptions, bond yields, currencies and equity-market sentiment.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d9d9708 elementor-invisible elementor-widget elementor-widget-neuros_heading\" data-id=\"d9d9708\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_animation&quot;:&quot;neuros_heading_animation&quot;,&quot;_animation_delay&quot;:300}\" data-widget_type=\"neuros_heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"neuros-heading-widget\"><h2 class=\"neuros-heading\"><span class=\"neuros-heading-content\">Gulf supply concerns ease, but the risk premium has not disappeared<\/span><\/h2><\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-25eb937 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"25eb937\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Reuters reported that Brent crude fell to around $72.52 per barrel and WTI to around $69.32 as more tankers exited the Strait of Hormuz and traders reassessed the near-term supply risk. The move followed improved regional flows after a preliminary agreement linked to the US, Israel and Iran, although the market remains sensitive to any reversal in shipping conditions.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-527efa8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"527efa8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The IEA June Oil Market Report still shows a complex backdrop. It said global oil demand is forecast to decline by 1.1 million barrels per day year on year in 2026, while global supply is expected to fall by 3.9 million barrels per day to 102.4 million barrels per day before recovering in 2027.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f40c815 elementor-invisible elementor-widget elementor-widget-neuros_heading\" data-id=\"f40c815\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_animation&quot;:&quot;neuros_heading_animation&quot;,&quot;_animation_delay&quot;:300}\" data-widget_type=\"neuros_heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"neuros-heading-widget\"><h2 class=\"neuros-heading\"><span class=\"neuros-heading-content\">Why lower oil matters beyond energy<\/span><\/h2><\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8f8083a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"8f8083a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Lower crude prices can ease inflation pressure, especially when markets are worried about energy-led price shocks. That matters because the Federal Reserve 17 June statement said inflation remains above its 2% goal and specifically referenced supply shocks affecting energy prices.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0c3c288 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0c3c288\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>If oil continues to fall, markets may reassess how much energy inflation could feed into broader prices. However, if Gulf flows remain fragile or if supply recovery is slower than expected, energy could quickly return as a source of volatility.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-46c2647 elementor-invisible elementor-widget elementor-widget-neuros_heading\" data-id=\"46c2647\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_animation&quot;:&quot;neuros_heading_animation&quot;,&quot;_animation_delay&quot;:300}\" data-widget_type=\"neuros_heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"neuros-heading-widget\"><h2 class=\"neuros-heading\"><span class=\"neuros-heading-content\">US inventory data adds another layer<\/span><\/h2><\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-db1116d elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"db1116d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The latest EIA weekly report showed US commercial crude inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels to 412.1 million barrels, about 7% below the five-year average. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cfe1d1e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"cfe1d1e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>That mix creates a more balanced market signal. Crude inventories remain tight, but product builds suggest demand and refining trends may not be uniformly supportive for prices.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e05d4e3 elementor-invisible elementor-widget elementor-widget-neuros_heading\" data-id=\"e05d4e3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_animation&quot;:&quot;neuros_heading_animation&quot;,&quot;_animation_delay&quot;:300}\" data-widget_type=\"neuros_heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"neuros-heading-widget\"><h2 class=\"neuros-heading\"><span class=\"neuros-heading-content\">Cross-market impact for traders<\/span><\/h2><\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b5a401a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"b5a401a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Energy markets are now feeding into several areas at once. Oil weakness can influence inflation expectations, which in turn affects bond yields and the US dollar. It can also support risk sentiment if investors believe energy costs are becoming less disruptive. At the same time, falling oil can pressure energy-linked assets and currencies when the move is driven by supply normalisation rather than stronger global demand.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3896fa6 elementor-invisible elementor-widget elementor-widget-neuros_heading\" data-id=\"3896fa6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_animation&quot;:&quot;neuros_heading_animation&quot;,&quot;_animation_delay&quot;:300}\" data-widget_type=\"neuros_heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"neuros-heading-widget\"><h2 class=\"neuros-heading\"><span class=\"neuros-heading-content\">What traders are watching<\/span><\/h2><\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b82d2f7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"b82d2f7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Traders are likely to watch whether Brent holds near prewar levels, whether Hormuz traffic continues to normalise, how the next EIA inventory reports develop, and whether lower oil changes expectations for inflation and central bank policy. They will also monitor the US dollar, Treasury yields and equity-sector rotation between energy, technology and broader risk assets.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-96e6926 elementor-invisible elementor-widget elementor-widget-neuros_heading\" data-id=\"96e6926\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_animation&quot;:&quot;neuros_heading_animation&quot;,&quot;_animation_delay&quot;:300}\" data-widget_type=\"neuros_heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"neuros-heading-widget\"><h2 class=\"neuros-heading\"><span class=\"neuros-heading-content\">Frequently Asked Questions<\/span><\/h2><\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-921220b elementor-widget elementor-widget-accordion\" data-id=\"921220b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"accordion.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1531\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1531\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fontello icon-accordion-arrow-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fontello icon-accordion-arrow-right-alt\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">Why did oil prices fall?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1531\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1531\"><p>Oil prices fell as Gulf shipping flows improved and traders reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium linked to the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1532\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"2\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1532\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fontello icon-accordion-arrow-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fontello icon-accordion-arrow-right-alt\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">Does lower oil automatically mean lower inflation?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1532\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"2\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1532\"><p>Not automatically. Lower crude can reduce energy-price pressure, but inflation also depends on wages, services, goods prices, currencies and supply chains.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1533\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"3\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1533\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fontello icon-accordion-arrow-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fontello icon-accordion-arrow-right-alt\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">Why are EIA inventories important? <\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1533\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"3\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1533\"><p>EIA data gives traders a weekly view of US crude and product balances. The latest report showed a large crude draw but builds in gasoline and distillates.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1534\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"4\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1534\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fontello icon-accordion-arrow-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fontello icon-accordion-arrow-right-alt\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">What could change the oil outlook again?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1534\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"4\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1534\"><p>A disruption to Gulf flows, weaker or stronger demand data, changes in OPEC+ policy, US inventory surprises or a shift in central bank expectations could all change the market tone.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"FAQPage\",\"mainEntity\":[{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Why did oil prices fall?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"<p>Oil prices fell as Gulf shipping flows improved and traders reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium linked to the Strait of Hormuz.<\\\/p>\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Does lower oil automatically mean lower inflation?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"<p>Not automatically. 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The move is important because energy prices can affect inflation expectations, central bank policy assumptions, bond yields,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":53401,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[230],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\r\n<title>Energy Markets Reset as Gulf Flows Resume and Oil Drops Back<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Oil prices fell toward prewar levels as Gulf shipping flows improved, shifting trader focus back to supply recovery, inflation expectations, the US dollar and central bank policy.\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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